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This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. TRAC , a San Francisco-based early-stage venture firm cofounded by Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, and Dick Fredericks in 2020, has set about to take a more systematic approach to venture capital. Advertisement"A SuperForecaster is in the top 1/10th of 1% of all early-stage investors," Aaron told Business Insider. But now TRAC has agreed to name names, revealing a random sampling of 30 of the 287 SuperForecasters in its model. They rarely make follow-on investments.
Persons: , Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, Dick Fredericks, Phillip Tetlock, Dan Gardner's, Aaron, SuperForecasters Organizations: Service, Business Locations: San Francisco
The firm developed a propriety model that uses AI to predict which early-stage startups are most likely to become unicorns, which are companies valued at more than a billion dollars. "Our AI eliminates about 99% of all early-stage companies from consideration, because our data predicts these companies have a higher probability of failure." Another surprising thing about TRAC's model is it does not value founders as predictive. "Similar vintage early-stage VCs would have had upwards of 20% of their portfolio be false positive within the first few years. Here are the 30 companies TRAC's model identified as being the next unicorns, in alphabetical order, all with a valuation of less than $250 million.
Persons: Fred Campbell, Joseph Aaron, Scott Pyne, Steve Marek, Dick Fredericks, Aaron, Sam Altman, MBAs, Angel SuperForecasters, Campbell Locations: San Francisco
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